IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Colorado St.
Mountain West
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+4.0	#112
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.7	#124
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.0	#56

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.9	#198

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.4%	0.6%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	0.8%	1.4%	0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.6%	17.5%	7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	4.9%	7.9%	2.2%
Average Seed	10.9	10.6	11.7

.500 or above	59.4%	72.8%	46.6%
.500 or above in Conference	68.2%	75.8%	61.0%
Conference Champion	7.6%	9.9%	5.4%
Last Place in Conference	2.2%	1.4%	3.0%

First Four	1.7%	2.3%	1.1%
First Round	11.6%	16.3%	7.3%
Second Round	3.8%	5.4%	2.3%
Sweet Sixteen	1.0%	1.5%	0.6%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: California (Neutral) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 2	2 - 4	3 - 8
Quad 3	6 - 4	8 - 12
Quad 4	6 - 1	14 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	107	California	L	72-73	49%
Nov 26, 2020	115	@ Oregon St.	L	72-75	41%
Dec 02, 2020	36	@ San Diego St.	L	67-77	18%
Dec 04, 2020	36	@ San Diego St.	L	67-77	18%
Dec 08, 2020	50	@ Colorado	L	71-80	22%
Dec 12, 2020	166	Northern Colorado	W	76-68	75%
Dec 19, 2020	74	@ St. Mary's	L	69-76	28%
Dec 28, 2020	150	Fresno St.	W	75-69	71%
Dec 30, 2020	150	Fresno St.	W	75-69	71%
Jan 07, 2021	102	UNLV	W	77-75	59%
Jan 09, 2021	102	UNLV	W	77-75	59%
Jan 13, 2021	282	@ San Jose St.	W	87-79	75%
Jan 15, 2021	282	@ San Jose St.	W	87-79	74%
Jan 20, 2021	75	@ Utah St.	L	71-78	28%
Jan 22, 2021	75	@ Utah St.	L	71-78	28%
Jan 28, 2021	86	Boise St.	W	78-77	52%
Jan 30, 2021	86	Boise St.	W	78-77	52%
Feb 04, 2021	169	@ Wyoming	W	74-72	55%
Feb 06, 2021	169	@ Wyoming	W	74-72	56%
Feb 11, 2021	180	New Mexico	W	85-77	75%
Feb 13, 2021	180	New Mexico	W	85-77	75%
Feb 18, 2021	104	@ Nevada	L	79-82	38%
Feb 20, 2021	104	@ Nevada	L	79-82	39%
Feb 27, 2021	225	Air Force	W	84-73	81%
Mar 01, 2021	225	Air Force	W	84-73	82%
Projected Record						13 - 12	11 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.5	1.4	2.1	1.9	1.1	0.5	0.1		7.6	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.5	3.1	3.5	2.0	0.8	0.1				11.3	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.4	2.2	4.7	3.9	1.9	0.3	0.0					13.5	3rd
4th										0.1	0.9	3.5	5.8	3.7	1.0	0.1							14.9	4th
5th									0.1	1.1	3.8	5.0	2.8	0.7	0.1								13.6	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.4	3.6	4.4	2.1	0.3										12.1	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.2	3.6	3.8	1.5	0.2											10.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.3	2.6	2.3	0.8	0.1												7.3	8th
9th				0.0	0.4	1.0	2.0	1.4	0.5	0.0													5.3	9th
10th			0.0	0.4	0.8	0.9	0.7	0.2	0.0														3.0	10th
11th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0																1.2	11th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.5	2.2	4.1	5.6	8.0	9.3	10.7	11.2	11.4	10.7	8.5	6.8	4.4	2.7	1.2	0.5	0.1			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.5		0.4	0.0
18-2	90.8%	1.1		0.9	0.1	0.0
17-3	70.9%	1.9		1.4	0.5	0.0
16-4	48.4%	2.1		1.0	0.9	0.1	0.0
15-5	20.2%	1.4		0.5	0.6	0.3	0.0
14-6	5.7%	0.5		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	0.7%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	7.6%	7.6		4.4	2.4	0.6	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		100.0%	67.4%	32.6%	3.7		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0											100.0%
19-1	0.5%		94.2%	54.7%	39.6%	5.8		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		87.3%
18-2	1.2%		91.1%	41.0%	50.1%	7.6			0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.1		84.9%
17-3	2.7%		76.5%	31.1%	45.4%	9.5			0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.0				0.6		65.9%
16-4	4.4%		51.3%	24.5%	26.8%	10.7						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0			2.1		35.5%
15-5	6.8%		30.9%	19.2%	11.7%	11.5									0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.0		4.7		14.5%
14-6	8.5%		19.0%	14.1%	4.9%	11.9									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.3	0.1			6.9		5.7%
13-7	10.7%		9.9%	9.1%	0.8%	12.7											0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	9.7		0.9%
12-8	11.4%		7.5%	7.2%	0.3%	13.2												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	10.6		0.3%
11-9	11.2%		5.0%	5.0%	0.0%	13.7												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	10.7		0.0%
10-10	10.7%		2.6%	2.6%		14.3												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	10.4
9-11	9.3%		0.7%	0.7%		15.4															0.0	0.0	0.0	9.3
8-12	8.0%		1.6%	1.6%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.1	7.8
7-13	5.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.6
6-14	4.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.1
5-15	2.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.2
4-16	1.5%																							1.5
3-17	0.7%																							0.7
2-18	0.3%																							0.3
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		12.6%	8.0%	4.5%	10.9		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.9	1.4	2.2	3.1	1.7	0.8	0.4	0.2	87.4		4.9%